Publishing 10 years from now...

Ten years from now... (in my imagination)

There will certainly be continued growth in Print-on-Demand and online material. These options will be the preferable choice just for the lower overhead and lack of need for storage for the printed book. Consequently, there will likely be a smaller need for distributors.

I'm not sure about this whole e-book thing. I'm wondering if the Kindle will go through so many versions that it will require users to upgrade their devices in order to enjoy better technology, and then will be subject to the kind of frustration that we experienced with the Nintendo system-- that eventually, you have to upgrade (or change to a whole new manufacturer for the better procudt) because all the new stuff is only supported by the newest version of the reader. If that happens, I feel like people will eventually get wise to that game and give up on it.

Walking past a music store last weekend, I stopped to ponder how it would be if the printed book went the way of the vinyl record--relics, cool and retro, still existing as the truest media for the artform. But I feel pretty sure it won't happen in the next 10 years, because there are still too many types of books whose content do not lend themselves easily (or at all) to electronic media. Picture books and board books come to mind, and books on photography and art would just not sell well as images on a screen. The tactile aspect feels appropriate and necessary for image-laden books. For these, I do think the small presses are more fit to handle the demand. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I think in the long run, small publishers are better suited to determine readers' changing demands and respond to them, much like Kelley was sayimg.

On further speculation, how would it be if something happened that wiped out the internet--completely, irreversably destroyed it? What if this event rendered all computers useless? We would have bigger problems than book publishing , that's for sure, but perhaps this would be the only circumstance under which we as a society would get back to creating things by hand, without the aid of electronic devices. We are hopelessly dependent upon the digital world. But without it, we would still have books. We would still share stories. We could still look up information in printed format. I feel more secure just knowing that there are books around us, and the presence and rediscovery of books I knew as a child give me a warm and happy feeling. It makes me sad to think about a child who would not have the opportunity to feel this way about a favorite book. The experience is just not the same with an electronic screen.

Of course, I do believe it will be well over 10 years before any of the giant publishers close thier doors or fail to meet public demand. The three will likley remain strong, and become more competetive with each other over time. Personally, I look forward to the day when the small presses join forces to slay the ugly conglomerate corporations.

*sigh*